Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Intraday Analysis

2010-02-04T09:01:00.001-08:00

Dow Jones have Tested its Low at 10044 on 30th Jan and Made Double Bottom as of we might see some Fibo Retracement towards 10180 Levels.

Enjoy the Technical Analysis of Dowjones Intraday.
Comments Welcome.

How Far Will Dow Fall.......?

2009-03-07T21:52:00.000-08:00

Wall Street pundits howled last July when we said the Dow would plunge to 7200 — a 37% decline.

Now, with the Dow well BELOW 7200, the critics have fallen silent — and some are even mimicking our forecast that Dow 5000 is dead ahead.

Here’s why even that dire medium-term forecast is still just the beginning — why the Dow could ultimately fall to 3500 ... 2500 ... 1500 or even lower ...

And how you can USE this great bear market to pile up greater profits in less time than you may now believe possible ...

How far will the Dow fall? Where will it hit rock bottom?

If you’re not asking this question right now, you should be.

It is absolutely essential that you get the answer right — for two, compelling reasons:

If you’re wrong, every sucker rally in this bear market could have you buying at the wrong time, then getting your head handed to you as the crash resumes.

But if you get it right, not only can you make a bundle with contrarian investments all the way down ... you’ll also be primed to earn windfall profits at the real bottom — picking up great stocks for pennies on the dollar!

You probably know that the average Dow stock crashed 89% between 1929 and 1932. So the question now is ...

When future history books are written, will they
say that this crisis was less severe than the
Great Depression? About the same? Or WORSE?

Of course, anyone who tells you he knows precisely where the Dow will hit rock bottom is pulling your leg. But consider the evidence ...

Fact #1: Earnings declines are now worse than in America’s First Great Depression. Average earnings have plunged 61% year-over-year, much more than during the 1930s. In fact, the last time earnings declined more than 61% was 141 long years ago!

Fact #2: Consumer losses are worse as well. Last time around, the losses that triggered the depression were largely limited to stock market investors.

This time, the fact that the average NYSE stock has already wiped out HALF investors’ money is only the tip of the iceberg: The equity most folks count on as their #1 source of retirement savings has also been wiped out as our homes have lost a staggering $2.4 trillion of their value in a single year.

Fact #3: Debts are far larger. Like this crisis, the Great Depression was essentially a debt implosion. But in 1929, total debts represented no more than 170% of GDP. This time around, U.S. consumers are buried under a far larger mountain of mortgage debt, auto loan debt, credit card debt and other consumer debts. Result: Total debts are now close to 350% of GDP — TWO TIMES MORE!

Fact #4: Derivatives! The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that U.S. banks now hold a $176-trillion mountain of derivatives, many of which are extremely high risk. In 1929, these derivatives were virtually non-existent.

Fact #5: Giant failures. In the first 18 months of the 1929-32 bear market, there were many small and medium-sized bank failures. However, none were as massive or as dangerous as the giant failures we’ve experienced in the first 18 months of this giant bear market.

This time around, the failures (or bailouts) of giants like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia dwarf anything seen in 1929. And even these large failures will be trumped several times over by the impending demise of Citigroup and AIG.

Fact #6: U.S. is a debtor nation! In 1929, the United States was a creditor nation, with substantial foreign reserves. Today, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation, dependent on foreign lenders to keep it afloat. That means that there’s a definite limit to how much longer the U.S. government can continue to borrow to bail out failing institutions.

Fact #7: The economic collapse and debt crisis are far from over! Just this morning, for example, we learned that

* Home prices have plunged 18.5%.

* Sales of existing homes have fallen to the lowest level in twelve years.

* Sales of new homes cratered to an all-time record low.

* 697,000 American families lost a paycheck in February — a 25% increase from January’s abysmal figures.

BOTTOM LINE: This crisis is AT LEAST as severe as the Great Depression, and the decline in stocks could be as well. That means, you could make the case that it could ultimately drive the Dow to as low as 1500.

Are You Ready for the World's Biggest Bankruptcy..?

2009-03-06T08:49:00.000-08:00

Are You Ready for the World's Biggest Bankruptcy?

By Tom Dyson

The media have given London a new nickname: Reykjavik-on-Thames.

Britain's economy revolved around banking. British banks hold about $4.4 trillion in foreign debt. The total size of the UK economy is $2.1 trillion. This year, the British government nationalized major parts of the UK's banking system. In total, the UK Treasury is on the hook for over $2 trillion in potential liabilities, according to an estimate by the Office of National Statistics.

But Britain is NOT going to be the world's biggest national bankruptcy. The government debt of the United Kingdom is only around $950 billion... or about $15,000 per capita.

This week, the United States Treasury sunk another $30 billion into AIG... its fourth bailout. It also put another $25 billion into Citigroup. The Treasury is now on the hook for as much as $6 trillion in liabilities. Last week, the White House produced its new budget. President Obama wants to run a deficit of $1.75 trillion in 2009.

The Treasury will pay for these bailouts by borrowing money. The Treasury borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds. Tomorrow, for example, it will auction three-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. This auction should raise around $60 billion.

The "debt clock" measures the amount of money the government owes its creditors. Today, the U.S. debt clock reads $11 trillion. To pay off this debt tomorrow, the government would have to collect $36,000 from every American.

But America is NOT about to be the world's biggest bankruptcy.

Of the major industrial economies in the world, Japan's government is the most indebted.

Since its recession began 20 years ago, Japan has plowed trillions into its banking system via numerous bailout programs. Japan's mantra is growth without cost. As a result, the Japanese government has built up the world's most crippling debt load.

The government of Japan owes $7.8 trillion. That's $157,000 per capita.

We've been using government debt per capita to compare the government debts of Britain, the United States, and Japan. But government debt to GDP is the ratio economists use to compare the indebtedness of countries. The UK has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%. The U.S. has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%. Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 187%.

If there's going to be a major sovereign bankruptcy, it's going to happen in Japan. Its economy is a shambles. For years, Japan has relied on exports... but even that's drying up now. In January, Japan's exports plunged 47%, producing a trade deficit. People talk about Japan as a "nation of savers." But that's not true anymore. Japan's personal savings rate has collapsed from 16% in the early 1990s to 2.2% last year.

Japan has an aging population and no immigration. I can't see where it's going to find the money to pay off its huge pile of debt.

The way to play the collapse in Japan is by shorting the yen. Right now, the Japanese yen is the world's most popular currency. Traders perceive it as a safe haven. In 2008, the yen was the world's best performing currency.... Rising 33% against the Canadian dollar, 40% against the British pound, and 19% against the dollar.

Back in January, I told you a fall in yen was all but inevitable. The yen is down 12% since that article. But according to a Merrill lynch report I saw yesterday, large speculators still have a $3.7 billion long position in yen futures. The analyst described it as "crowded."

The Japanese yen has been in a 40-year bull market. I think a new long-term bear market has just started... and it will end in the bankruptcy of Japan's government. FXY is the ETF for the Japanese yen. When then yen falls, this fund falls, too. The easiest way to bet on a fall in yen is to short this fund or buy put options on it.

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones

2009-03-01T04:01:00.001-08:00

DowJones have given negative breakout on all the three durations(daily,weekly,monthly) only possible way of support is around 6500 if it maintains then there is no issue for markets to rally Market is at the terror state and anything might happen. So wait patiently for 6500 Levels if that doesnt break then its time for Shopping.

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones

2009-02-06T18:36:00.000-08:00

As You can see Dow jones is in Consolidation Period. Wait for some breakout to happen or just buy and hold stocks for long time. The Level 7400 is not given up by Dow. So we can expect some good rally in mkts. some positive is waiting in market. Money levels are good for investment.

Technical Analysis of Eur-jpy Forex Pair

2009-01-09T08:20:00.000-08:00

Technical Analysis of Forex Pair: Eur-Jpy as you can see eur/jpy pair has gone under correction and is now ready at the support and it will be around 117.5 so one can buy below that leve and keep stoploss of 116.4 as stoploss and Go long for a Tgt of 126+. Keep hunting the Pips at maximum you like and markets are now looking okay. Brokers are the main thing Try to hunt Lower Spread as low as 2 pips. Hence you will make good one. One can also take small Quantity and Try for investment for a month or two. Currency trading is a Risk factor try to safe guard your Hard Earned Money.

Technical Analysis of Hindpetro

2008-12-21T01:45:00.000-08:00

Hindpetro has formed Double Bottom and has given a good breakout and is headed for miles. I hope all have noticed the Pattern. Hence it is headed for 330 Levels. One can buy this at some corrections near 260 Levels and wait for the Uprise in the stock. As you see Crude Prices are dipping everyday the stock has given breakout and be careful in Booking Profits every time you get. Higher Returns are expected if mkt is not in negative Mode.

Technical Analysis of Marico Industries

2008-12-21T01:24:00.000-08:00

MARICO has given bullish Breakout on breaking the pennant formation so one can look some good movement in the script. Short Term Trading is possible on this Stock. Traders can Buy this Stock at Current Market Price with a Stoploss of 51 for a Target of 60 & 68. As you see Index is Stabilizing bit there will be some movement in specific stocks. Good Luck

Analysis of Dowjones - Technical

2008-11-19T08:57:00.000-08:00

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones : As you can see the wallstreet hasn't been stabilized and trading in the Lower band of the trend line and if the Lower trendline is not breached for coming weeks then we might head higher. 8700 is the Stiff resistance for Dow Jones. As you can see the Historical Prices are now seen in Stocks and Shares. After breaking 8700 Dow Jones will head for 10200+. I would like to advice you all not to take any Investments now. Wait till Jan end and then Decide. Market is not in Convincing position. Wall Street Index has support at 8100 if it closes below that level we will see 7000 in Index. So take care of your positions.

Technical Analysis of Ftse

2008-11-19T08:40:00.000-08:00

Technical Analysis of FTSE: Ftse has retraced Fibonacci Levels of 61.8% and have shown some bounce.If this thing maintains for 4-5 days then there will be some positive movement in the Index. When the Index breaks 4350 Levels on the higher side the it will lead to 4650 and 4900. So one can wait till the 4350 levels to break and enter. As you see there is Less Returns on the stock I would advice to sell on rise. Wait till January end for Investments in Equity Stocks.

Check My Previous message Dated on 8-7-08 on Ftse towards 4100 or not...? Yes its Achieved in 4 months. Hope you all Benefitted

Technical Analysis of Canara Bank

2008-11-13T19:21:00.000-08:00

Canara Bank is not a Buy wait till Some time one more final Blowoff is expected in markets. In that time try to buy Canara Bank Below the first trend line ie..Below 145 and hold as an investment for one year. Stoploss will be 131. Try to buy when Nifty is below 2400.

Technical Analysis of Forex Eur-Jpy

2008-11-03T09:08:00.000-08:00

This is my first post in Forex Market. Buy Eur-Jpy for a Target of 136 with a Stoploss of 121.46. Chart giving next resistance around 135-136 area. One can Get 1000 pips in this trade. But Just take position for a Month. Forex trends are bit stabilising. But the USA Elections should be watchful.

Technical Analysis Dowjones

2008-11-01T11:15:00.000-07:00

Dowjones has been a some sort of Stabilising this week and formed a band and it will be tested on monday of it breaks the band in upper side then it will lead dow till10500 and the resistance starts and if not breaken at 9500 then we may test the lower side again at 8100,if that level holds then Dow is getting ready for stabilise and if not then we may see dowjones at 7400 the Long Term Support. I hope this will not break.

Investment Call HDIL - Housing Development Infrastructure

2008-11-01T10:56:00.000-07:00

HDIL- Housing Delvelopment and Infrastructure Limited is My Investment Call for 2-3 Years. It has formed a Large Pennant Formation for a time period for one year so Breakout will Lead to Previous high. So Try to Accumulate it. Its at Mouth Watering Level. Dont Speculate just Invest.

Technical Analysis of Indian Cnx Nifty - Nifty at Longterm Trendlline Support

2008-10-19T20:56:00.000-07:00

Indian CNX NIFTY at Long Term Trendline Support So one can buy below the Trendline at 3000. You can Invest 30% of your Capital In this time. And the rest 30% when nifty below 2600. I dont think so. If Nifty below 2600 Then Dont worry Sell all your assests and Buy Stocks for 3-5 years investments.

Technical Anlysis Dowjones Major Support Level

2008-10-04T10:31:00.000-07:00

Major Support for Dowjones is Around 7400 May God Save this Level For all of them.

Technical Analysis Dow Jones

2008-09-29T12:04:00.001-07:00

DowJones has Broken Very Crucial Long Term Support and its Fall as a Ball thrown in air. And at last we can have the hope at 10350 its also a support. Only that can save us from huge sell off after this.

29th Sep Technical Anlysis of Canara Bank

2008-09-28T20:12:00.000-07:00

Canara Bank has Give a Negative Breakout by Breaching the Lower Trendline at 194 and RSI also is showing the negative Breakout. So one can Short Below 189 with a Stoploss of 196 for a Target of 175 & 155.

Techinical Anlysis: Dowjones near Breakout

2008-09-24T11:38:00.000-07:00

DowJones has formed a good channel and it is in the verge of breakout so let us wait and see what will happen.

22nd Sep Techinical Anlaysis of Allahabad Bank

2008-09-21T20:19:00.001-07:00

Allahabad Bank Has Given Bullish Breakout By Breaking The Upper Trendline Of Pennant Formation So Quick Gains Are Possible In This Counter. One Can Buy Allahabad Bank With A Stoploss Of 82.1 For A Target Of 98+. Try To Book Profits If You Are In. Nifty Doesn't Look Convincing Once Again We Will Test 4500 And Then Again Huge Selling Will Be There So Try to Book All Your Positions If You Are In Profit.

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones

2008-09-15T19:40:00.000-07:00

Dowjones is again at the Long term Trendline at 10850. If any recovery from here will lead dow to stabilise. Breaking This trend line will lead to Massive Selling in the system and Global meltdown will once again starts. So one can Buy with a Stoploss of 10750.

15th Sep ICICI BANK LTD

2008-09-14T19:38:00.000-07:00

Icici Bank has given bearish breakout by breaking the lower trendline and is headed for Lower Levels. As one can see Bank nifty also given bearish breakout. So Avoid banking Stocks for short term. Short With Stoploss of 670 For a Target of 610.

Is FTSE Breakout A Clue For Global Market Trend.....??

2008-08-27T07:24:00.000-07:00

FTSE100 has given a good bullish breakout which will lead to 5900. Providing a good cue for Global Market. This is a Clue for Global Trends.

26th Aug Suhpharma

2008-08-25T20:50:00.001-07:00

SunPharma has given a bullish breakout by breaking the resistance and is headed for 1700+. So one can buy with a stoploss of 1450.

25th Aug Gujarat Nre Coke

2008-08-24T20:44:00.000-07:00

Gujarat Nre Coke has given a Bullish Breakout on the upside. So Buy above 111 For a Target of 122 & 131 with a Stoploss of 104.

14th Aug Bank Nifty

2008-08-13T20:01:00.000-07:00

Bank Nifty Has Given a Bearish Breakout so one can Short at current level with a stoploss of 6450 for a target of 6000.

12th August ICICI BANK LTD

2008-08-11T18:16:00.000-07:00

ICICI BANK LTD has given a Bullish Breakout by breaking the downward channel at the top and it made higher bottom too. Rsi also given a good breakout so one can look some fireworks in this counter. One can Buy it for a Tgt of 835 with a stoploss of 762.

Technical Analysis 11th Aug

2008-08-10T19:26:00.001-07:00

NIFTY

Nifty on Friday Touched the Support of 4460 and Bounced Back. If 4460 is Maintained we will see Nifty headed for 4800. So buy with a stoploss of 4460 For all Longs.

SHIPPING CORPORATION OF INDIA(SCI)

Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has given a Bullish breakout on pennant formation. It is headed for 250 and 270. one can buy with stoploss of 236.

Technical Analysis for 4th aug Renuka Sugars

2008-08-03T20:26:00.000-07:00

Renuka Sugars has given a Bullish Breakout by Breaking upper trend line. Rising Rsi is Good for the stock so one can go long for a tgt of 160+ with a stoploss of 126.

Technical Analysis 31st July - Aftek Ltd

2008-07-31T20:40:00.000-07:00

Aftek Ltd is headed for 55+ Levels so one can buy with a stoploss of 40.4. Enjoy

Tipss for 31st July - SRF Ltd

2008-07-30T19:20:00.000-07:00

SRF has given a good breakout from pennant formation breaking 132. So one can buy it above 133 with a stoploss of 131 for a tgt of 142 & 150.

Tipss for 30th July - Escorts

2008-07-29T18:52:00.001-07:00

As You can See Escorts is Lying around Resistance area. It is at the Verge of Breakout so Buy above 74.3 With Stoploss of 71.7 For a Target of 82+.

Technical Analysis - 29th July Rolta Ltd

2008-07-28T20:14:00.000-07:00

As You can See Rolta in around the Resistance. One can buy above 310 For a tgt of 345. And Rolta has Formed A Small Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern and the breakout from 310 Will also leads to 400. so one can Go for medium term. No Stoploss needed.

Technical Analysis on Indian CNX NIFTY

2008-07-27T21:05:00.000-07:00

As you can see our Nifty has not Crossed the Important Resistance of 4530 this level is a Negative Breakout line. But the Short term Support Lies around 4150-4200. Keep 4000 as Stoploss for all longs. If Nifty fails to manage above 4550 It would be a terrible picture for our mkt and is headed directly 3800 and 3600. Don't Try to invest at this time. Nifty Is Hanging at the Cliff of the Edge.

With Regards,
Tipss market

Tipss for 28th July - India Cements Ltd

2008-07-27T19:43:00.000-07:00

India Cements Ltd has given a bullish Breakout by breaking the Resistance Line at 149. And Rsi is making Higher Bottom. So one can go long at this script with a Stoploss of 144 for a Target of 170+.
With Regards
Tipss market.

Petro Euro Vs Petro Dollar

2008-07-25T21:27:00.000-07:00

This article dates back into history and explains why has dollar become a global exchange currency and if it is substituted by Euro then what will happen to US. It's a compulsory read

Petro-Euro Vs Petro-Dollar - Good Eye opener

Must read !

Why the Dollar Bubble is about to Burst?
IRAN HAS REALLY DONE IT...more deadlier than the nuclear....

The Voice (issue 264 -) ran an article beginning, ' Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven't sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf . They are about to launch something much more deadly -- next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not n dollars but in Euros' This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable.

Currently almost all oil buying and selling is in US-dollars through exchanges in London and New York . It is not accidental they are both US-owned.

The Wall Street crash in 1929 sparked off global depression and World War II. During that war the US supplied provisions and munitions to all its allies, refusing currency and demanding gold payments in exchange.

By 1945, 80% of the world's gold was sitting in US vaults. The dollar became the one undisputed global reserve currency -- it was treated world-wide as `safer than gold'. The Bretton Woods agreement was established.

The US took full advantage over the next decades and printed dollars like there was no tomorrow. The US exported many mountains of dollars, paying for ever-increasing amounts of commodities, tax cuts for the rich, many wars abroad, mercenaries, spies and politicians the world over. You see, this did not affect inflation at home! The US got it all for free! Well, maybe for a forest or two.

Over subsequent decades the world's vaults bulged at the seams and more and more vaults were built, just for US dollars. Each year, the US spends many more dollars abroad that at home. Analysts pretty much agree that outside the US , of the savings, or reserves, of all other countries, in gold and all currencies -- that a massive 66% of this total wealth is in US dollars!

In 1971 several countries simultaneously tried to sell a small portion of their dollars to the US for gold. Krassimir Petrov, (Ph. D. in Economics at Ohio University ) recently wrote, 'The US Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971 . While popular spin told the story of `severing the link between the dollar and gold', in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the US Government.' The 1945 Breton Woods agreement was unilaterally smashed.

The dollar and US economy were on a precipice resembling Germany in 1929.The US now had to find a way for the rest of the world to believe and have faith in the paper dollar. The solution was in oil, in the petrodollar. The US viciously bullied first Saudi Arabia and then OPEC to sell oil for dollars only -- it worked, the dollar was saved. Now countries had to keep dollars to buy much needed oil. And the US could buy oil all over the world, free of charge. What a Houdini for the US ! Oil replaced gold as the new foundation to stop the paper dollar sinking.

Since 1971, the US printed even more mountains of dollars to spend abroad.The trade deficit grew and grew. The US sucked-in much of the world's products for next to nothing. More vaults were built.

Expert, Cóilínn Nunan, wrote in 2003, 'The dollar is the de facto world reserve currency: the US currency accounts for approximately two thirds of all official exchange reserves. More than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions and half of all world exports are denominated in dollars. In addition, all IMF loans are denominated in dollars.'Dr Bulent Gukay of Keele University recently wrote, 'This system of the US dollar acting as global reserve currency in oil trade keeps the demand for the dollar `artificially' high. This enables the US to carry out printing dollars at the price of next to nothing to fund increased military spending and consumer spending on imports. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars that can be printed. As long as the US has no serious challengers, and the other states have confidence in the US dollar, the system functions.'

Until recently, the US-dollar has been safe. However, since 1990 Western Europe has been busy growing, swallowing up central and Eastern Europe .French and German bosses were jealous of the US ability to buy goods and people the world over for nothing. They wanted a slice of the free cake too.Further, they now had the power and established the euro in late 1999 against massive US-inspired opposition across Europe , especially from Britain - paid for in dollars of course. But the euro succeeded.

Only months after the euro-launch, Saddam's Iraq announced it was switching from selling oil in dollars only, to euros only -- breaking the OPEC agreement.. Iran , Russia , Venezuela , Libya , all began talking openly of switching too -- were the floodgates about to be opened?

Then aero planes flew into the twin-towers in September 2001. Was this another Houdini chance to save the US (petro) dollar and the biggest financial/economic crash in history? War preparations began in the US But first war-fever had to be created -- and truth was the first casualty. Other oil producing countries watched-on. In 2000 Iraq began selling oil in euros.In 2002, Iraq changed all their petro-dollars in their vaults into euros. A few months later, the US began their invasion of Iraq .

The whole world was watching: very few aware that the US was engaging in the first oil currency, or petro-dollar war. After the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, remember, the US secured oil areas first. Their first sales in August were, of course, in dollars, again. The only government building in Baghdad not bombed was the Oil Ministry! It does not matter how many people are murdered -- for the US , the petro-dollar must be saved as the only way to buy and sell oil - otherwise the US economy will crash, and much more besides.

In early 2003, Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela talked openly of selling half of its oil in euros (the other half is bought by the US ). On 12 April 2003, the US-supported business leaders and some generals in Venezuela kidnapped Chavez and attempted a coup. The masses rose against this and the Army followed suit. The coup failed. This was bad for the US .

In November 2000 the euro/dollar was at $0.82 dollars, its lowest ever, and still diving, but when Iraq started selling oil in euros, the euro dive was halted. In April 2002 senior OPEC reps talked about trading in euros and the euro shot up. In June 2003 the US occupiers of Iraq switched trading back to dollars and the euro fell against the dollar again. In August 2003 Iran starts to sell oil in euros to some European countries and the euro rises sharply. In the winter of 2003-4 Russian and OPEC politicians talked seriously of switching oil/gas sales to the euro and the euro rose. In February 2004 OPEC met and made no decision to turn to the euro -- and yes, the euro fell against the dollar. In June 2004 Iran announced it would build an oil bourse to rival London and New York , and again, the euro rose. The euro stands at $1.27 and has been climbing of late.

But matters this month became far, far worse for the US dollar. On 5th May Iran registered its own Oil Bourse, the IOB. Not only are they now selling oil in euros from abroad -- they have established an actual Oil Bourse, a global trading centre for all countries to buy and sell their oil!

In Chavez's recent visit to London ; he talked openly about supporting the Iranian Oil Bourse, and selling oil in euros. When asked in London about the new arms embargo imposed by the US against Venezuela , Chavez prophetically dismissed the US as 'a paper tiger'.

Currently, almost all the world's oil is sold on either the NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, or the IPE, London's International Petroleum Exchange.Both are owned by US citizens and both sell and buy only in US dollars. The success of the Iran Oil Bourse makes sense to Europe , which buys 70% of Iran 's oil. It makes sense for Russia , which sells 66% of its oil to Europe . But worse for the US , China and India have already stated they are very interested in the new Iranian Oil Bourse.

If there is a tactical-nuclear strike on - deja-vu - `weapons of mass destruction' in Iran , who would bet against a certain Oil Exchange and more, being bombed too?

And worse for Bush. It makes sense for Europe , China , India and Japan-- as well as all the other countries mentioned above -- to buy and sell oil in Euro's. They will certainly have to stock-up on euros now, and they will sell dollars to do so. The euro is far more stable than the debt-ridden dollar. The IMF has recently highlighted US economic difficulties and the trade deficit strangling the US-- there is no way out.

The problem for so many countries now is how to get rid of their vaults full of dollars, before it crashes? And the US has bullied so many countries for so many decades around the world, that many will see a chance to kick the bully back. The US cannot accept even 5% of the world's dollars -- it would crash the US economy dragging much of the world with it, especially Britain .

To survive, as the Scottish Socialist Voice article stated, 'the US , needs to generate a trade surplus to get out of this one. Problem is it can't.'This is spot on. To do that they must force US workers into near slavery, to get paid less than Chinese or Indian workers. We all know that this will not happen.

What will happen in the US ? Chaos for sure. Maybe a workers revolution, but looking at the situation as it is now, it is more likely to be a re-run of Germany post-1929, and some form of extreme-right mass movement will emerge...

Does Europe and China/Asia have the economic independence and strength to stop the whole world's economies collapsing with the US ? Their vaults are full to the brim with dollars.

The US has to find a way to pay for its dollar-imperialist exploitation of the world since 1945.. Somehow, eventually, it has to account for every dollar in every vault in the world.

Bombing Iran could backfire tremendously. It would bring Iran openly into the war in Iraq , behind the Shiite majority. The US cannot cope even now with the much smaller Iraqi insurgency. Perhaps the US will feed into the Sunni v Shiite conflict and turn it into a wider Middle-East civil-war.However, this is so dangerous for global oil supplies. Further, they know that this would be temporary, as some country somewhere else, will establish a euro-oil-exchange, perhaps in Brussels .

There is one `solution' -- scrap the dollar and print a whole new currency for the US . This will destroy 66% of the rest of the world's savings/reserves in one swoop. Imagine the implications? Such are the desperate things now swimming around heads in the White House, Wall Street and Pentagon.

Another is to do as Germany did, just before invading Poland in 1938. The Nazis filmed a mock Polish Army attack on Germany , to win hearts and minds at home. But again, this is a finger in the dam. So, how is the US going to escape this time? The only global arena of total superiority left is military. Who knows what horrors lie ahead. A new world war is one tool by which the US could discipline its `allies' into keeping the dollar in their vaults.

The task of socialists today is to explain to as many as possible, especially our class, that the coming crisis belongs purely to capitalism and (dollar) imperialism. Not people of other cultures, not Islam, not the axis of evil or their so-called WMDs. Their system alone is to blame.

The new Iranian Oil Bourse, the IOB, is situated in a new building on the free-trade-zone island of Kish , in the Persian Gulf . It's computers and software are all set to go. The IOB was supposed to be up and running last March, but many pressures forced a postponement. Where the pressure came from is obvious. It was internationally registered on 5th May and supposed to open mid-May, but its opening was put off, some saying the oil-mafia was involved, along with much international pressure.

25th July Sasken Communication

2008-07-24T19:58:00.000-07:00

SASKEN COMMUNICATION Has given a Bullish Breakout by breaking the Pennant formation and crossing the upper Trend Line at 150. Giving a chance for bulls to ride this Momentum.Rsi also giving support hence One can Go long with a stoploss of 147 for a Tgt of 175 and 190. Go for Great Guns.
With Regards,
Tipss market

24th July Nifty

2008-07-23T19:21:00.000-07:00

As we see Nifty has been moving up from the low of 3790 to 4476 and now the Key Resistance is around 4500-4530. Hence Now Can we decide to go long or short at this level. If Nifty Breaks the level of 4530 and holds for an hour then we can take long with a stoploss of 4470 for a target of 4700. As once can see the straight fifth day of gain we may see some profit booking around these levels. One must be careful of Going Longs today.
Happy Earnings

23rd July Axis Bank

2008-07-22T18:35:00.001-07:00

Axis Bank has Given a Bullish Breakout by breaking the pennant formation in the upside so one can expect some fireworks in this counter. Buy with a stoploss of 720 for a Tgt of 800+.

22nd July Power Grid

2008-07-21T20:06:00.000-07:00

Power Grid has Given bullish Breakout by crossing the upper trendline at 90. And Rsi has formed higher Bottoms so one can expect some momentum in this stock. Buy With a stoploss of 89 For a tgt of 102 & 110.

21st July - NTPC

2008-07-20T19:47:00.001-07:00

NTPC has given bullish breakout by breaking the Resistance at 170 and is headed for 185 and 200. So one can go long with a stoploss of 168.

Click here for one more Stock Breakout.

21st July - ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd)

2008-07-20T19:36:00.000-07:00

ONGC(Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd) has given a bullish breakout by breaking the resistance at 940 and is headed for 1000 and 1080. So one can Buy at this level and go for long with stoploss of 932.

18th July Reliance Capital Limited

2008-07-17T18:42:00.001-07:00

Reliance Capital Limited Has give a good breakout by breaking the uppertrend line at 1008 and closed above that. So one can Buy it with a stoploss of 1000 and Can Expect it to 1200+. So Go for Great Guns

17th July Great Offshore Limited

2008-07-16T18:31:00.001-07:00

GT OFFSHORE is at Oversold Position so one can buy it for a tgt of 440-460 in Short term no stoploss required.

Dowjones Taking Support at Long Term Trendline

2008-07-16T18:28:00.000-07:00

As One Can See Dow Jones had took support at 11k Levels so one can expect a smart rally from here. Keep 10900 as stoploss and Take home your Long positions.

Will Dow Jones Be Saved At Long Term TrendLine.....????

16th July Cipla Laboratories

2008-07-15T18:31:00.000-07:00

Cipla is week below 203. There are two ways possible in this chart Lets see. One is when it breaks 203 its is headed for 185 and after that Recovery may come. condition 2 After that i can go for January Levels and retest it. Short Below 203 With a Stoploss of 208.

15th July Infosys

2008-07-14T20:11:00.000-07:00

Infosys Has Give a bearish breakout by breaching the Lower Trendline and it is headed for 1350 So short with Stoploss of 1615 on closing basis.

13th July Lanco Infratech Ltd

2008-07-13T08:54:00.000-07:00

Short Lanco Infra Below 281 With a stoploss of 287. For a Tgt of 240. As you Can see Double Top Formation in RSI also. So one can Short at that point of entry

Crude Oil Climbs Above $147 A Barrel...??

2008-07-11T18:54:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices spiked to a new record above $147 a barrel Friday, as rising hostilities between the West and Iran and the potential for attacks on Nigerian oil facilities gave investors reason to rush back into the energy markets.

Another drop in the U.S. dollar also lured buyers.

The resurgence in crude prices not only raises the concern that $4-a-gallon gasoline is here to stay for U.S. drivers -- it also means that heating homes could get significantly more expensive this winter. Heating oil futures surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange to a record of more than $4.15 a gallon, and natural gas also rose.

''If you think your gasoline bills are expensive now, wait till you get your home heating bill this winter,'' said Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader in Villanova, Pa.

The problem is that while U.S. consumer demand is waning as people try to save money, other factors are keeping energy costs high. Those factors include the weak dollar, refineries cutting back on production and relatively resilient demand for diesel fuel. Diesel is a distillate fuel that is produced and distributed similarly to heating oil, so diesel demand often affects the price of heating oil.

The other big reason gasoline and heating bills are likely to stay high: unrest in the Middle East and Africa.

''The bulls are still able to spin a bullish case on this -- not based so much on the fundamentals, but on a lot of 'What if?' scenarios,'' Schork said.

Iran, which has long been under U.N. scrutiny for its uranium enrichment program, has been testing missiles this week, including a new missile capable of reaching Israel. On Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned the oil-producing nation that the United States will defend its allies, and Iran responded with another missile launch. Neither the United States nor Israel has ruled out a military strike on Iran.

Traders fear the oil producing nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 40 percent of the world's tanker traffic passes.

''There's always a fear premium in pricing. The tensions in Iran and the threat of supply disruption will help support oil prices,'' said Jeff Brown, managing director of FACTS Global Energy in Singapore.

On Friday, light, sweet crude for August delivery soared to an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel, before pulling back slightly to trade at $146.60, up $4.94.

Crude had fallen by nearly $10 a barrel over two days at the start of the week, but rebounded by more than $5 a barrel Thursday as anxiety heightened about Middle East and Nigerian supplies being disrupted.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday it cannot replace the shortfall if Iran is attacked and takes its crude supplies off the market.

Also Thursday, Nigeria's main militant group said it would resume attacks in the oil-rich region because of Britain's recent vow to back the government in the conflict there. Over the past two years, attacks have lowered the nation's typical daily oil output by a quarter.

JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria, said the news about Iran and Nigeria -- as well as a reported threat of a strike by oil workers in Brazil -- were ''enough to wake the market from its two-day slumber.''

Meanwhile, the dollar weakened against other major currencies Friday. The falling dollar has been a major factor behind the surge in crude oil, which is denominated in dollars; oil's rise has not been as severe for countries with stronger currencies, and meanwhile, traders have been using commodities as a hedge against the tumbling U.S. currency.

August Brent crude rose to a new trading record of $147.50 before pulling back to trade $4.82 higher at $146.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose to a trading record of $4.1586 before retreating to $4.1457 a gallon, up 10.83 cents.

Gasoline futures also rose to a new trading record of $3.631 a gallon before easing back to $3.6140, up 10.31 cents.

The average U.S. retail price for gasoline was at $4.096 a gallon, down slightly from the record $4.108 a gallon reached on Monday, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express.

Natural gas futures rose 2.7 cents to $12.329 per 1,000 cubic feet, after rising as high as $13.694.

Natural gas, because it is not a crude oil product, is inexpensive compared to heating oil. But as the winter approaches, the fuel has the potential to shoot higher as energy traders look for cheaper places to put their money, Schork said.

Heating oil is used mostly in the Northeast United States; homes in most other regions of the country use natural gas.

It's possible for people to save some money on heating, but it's not easy to slash the bill significantly.

''We've been building these ridiculous McMansions over the past few years. It's harder to trade in a McMansion than it is an SUV,'' Schork said. ''But you can turn your thermostat down and throw on a sweater.''

Aarti Industries

2008-07-10T18:15:00.001-07:00

Aarti Industries has give bullish Breakout by crossing upper trendline at 34. So one can Buy with a Stoploss of 34 for a Tgt of 40 & 44.

With Regards
Tipssmarket

Is That Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern ....???

2008-07-09T20:01:00.000-07:00

Orchid Chemicals Has Formed Inverse Head and Shoulder(IH&S). Neckline lies around 280 Levels once it Breaks That level It's headed for 400+. So Try to invest in for 3 months.

With Regards
Tipssmarket

FTSE Towards 4100 or Not......????

2008-07-08T22:02:00.000-07:00

As You See Ftse Has Formed Head and Shoulders(H&S) its has trendline support and neckline support at 5400. And if this 5400 maintains there is no need to panic and if not then there will be a Blood Bath in Market So please Take care of your Positions with Sl placing below 5350.

Another this Buy here with a stoploss of 5200.

With regards
Tipss Market

Crude Oil - a Highway Robbery.....????

2008-07-08T07:08:00.000-07:00

Hello Readers,

Oil Price: Fixing The Blame. Not The Problem

All those speculators getting the blame for driving up the price of oil these days - just who are they? For part of the answer, look in the mirror.

The retirement savings of workers across the country, entrusted to pension fund managers, are being plowed into one of the few investments that has delivered phenomenal returns in recent years.

For decades, futures contracts were mostly traded by commodity producers and the people who used the actual products, such as crude oil, corn and soybeans. Agreeing to a price today for a commodity to be delivered in, say, two months is a way to smooth out price fluctuations for those supplies.

But large investors faced with the threat of inflation have increasingly used them as protection against the falling dollar. That includes pension funds, along with investment banks, mutual funds and private hedge funds.

Research firm Ennis Knupp and Associates says $139 billion had been funneled into energy commodites, primarily crude oil, by the end of March - and it estimates more than half of that is from retirement money.

The investments have paid off. The Standard & Poor's GSCI index, which tracks a basket of commodities, is up 19 percent in the past five years, compared with just 9 percent for the S&P 500 stock index.

The risk is that if the remarkable run in oil and other futures markets reverses course, billions of dollars of retirement benefits could be wiped out.

"A pension fund is supposed to be investing money in secure, stable investments for the benefit of the people whose money they are investing," said Dan Lippe, an energy analyst at Houston-based Petral Consulting Inc.

"When we hit that wall and things start falling," he said, "they will fall very fast, and the pension funds that invested in commodities will see a tremendous loss of value." The retirement system for public employees in California, the largest in the nation, has $1.3 billion invested in commodities. Most of it tracks the S&P commodity index.

That's still just one-half of 1 percent of the fund's total $240 billion in assets, said Michael Schlachter, who advises the California pension fund. He said a collapse in oil or other commodity prices would have little effect on retirees.

Still, a growing chorus of experts is convinced retirement investments are enough to distort prices.

Billionaire George Soros, the airline industry and the International Monetary Fund are all pressuring Congress to curb speculation by large investors. Democrats in Congress say they hope to vote on restrictions by August.

"Your pension fund manager may be using your retirement money to drive up the price of oil," said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., at a hearing earlier this week on speculation in commodities.

"What would happen if pension fund managers decided to increase their commodity investment by another 20-fold?" he asked.

Speculators put money into commodity markets simply to make money on their investments - unlike commercial investors, who are actually buying or selling orders for physical goods.

Energy analysts say it's unclear what effect speculators have had on oil prices, which climbed briefly to a new record above $142 on Friday before falling back.

But Stupak and other lawmakers have already dashed off more than a dozen proposals to rein in commodity trading, including limiting how many contracts speculators can hold and closing loopholes that allow them to skirt regulations.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., proposed banning pension funds and other large investors from commodities altogether. He dropped the idea after vigorous opposition by an association of public and private pension funds.

Schlachter, who is also managing director for investment consulting firm Wilshire Associates, called the idea "horrendously bad." He said pension funds should not be compared to Wall Street speculators, who assume huge risks every day to maximize returns.

"The pension plans we work with are using commodities only as a long-term hedge against inflation," he said.

Unlike the stock market, where there are a limited number of shares for each company, futures markets have no limits on contracts available. As long as a buyer can find a seller for each contract, investment opportunities are virtually unlimited.

Critics say retirement funds that accumulate contracts are artificially driving up commodity prices. In the case of oil, that means higher gas prices and more expensive food and other goods.

"If they're going to be in the futures market they need to trade rather than take this buy and hold strategy," said Michael Masters, portfolio manager of hedge fund Masters Capital Management. "That is the worst possible thing for the futures market."

Masters and other experts told members of Congress this week that eliminating excessive speculation could drive oil prices down to about $65 a barrel, less than half the current price.

Retirement funds have suffered at the hands of the market before. In 2002, when the stock market swooned after the dot-com crash and 9/11, retirement assets dropped $7 billion, losing 8 percent of their value.

Will Dow Jones Be Saved at Long Term Trednline...???

2008-07-08T01:53:00.000-07:00

Dow Jones is Nearing Long Term Support Trendline. As One Can see This Meltdown Has Made lot of Negative things One can Buy here and hold for Good gain in Coming Year.

ADX Indicator is at +26 so it is now Trending to Make an Move So One can Expect a Smart Recovery in Dow jones(DJI)